Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 43.262147 47.439809 52.080662 57.666370 64.272780 71.923133 81.582434
2025-02-23 36.815500 42.185386 48.606815 57.019078 68.019034 82.338354 103.187121
2025-03-02 32.728784 38.522648 45.777747 55.826635 69.918883 89.941343 122.702435
2025-03-09 29.984055 36.008343 43.821288 55.128816 71.926440 97.681431 144.711205
2025-03-16 27.378956 33.334660 41.248510 53.065290 71.378570 101.150846 160.655636
2025-03-23 26.538430 32.879083 41.571056 55.093842 77.293227 116.525809 206.638768
2025-03-30 25.132846 31.503664 40.423519 54.702586 79.133118 125.113241 243.489728
2025-04-06 23.806695 30.124704 39.124391 53.876686 80.021481 132.047850 281.390548
2025-04-13 22.339404 28.441622 37.232134 51.868925 78.431790 133.377364 304.332888
2025-04-20 21.963919 28.299597 37.630167 53.659583 84.195882 152.785345 410.147816
2025-04-27 21.529502 28.032850 37.799909 55.061208 89.469026 173.292827 561.596126
2025-05-04 21.001307 27.586586 37.641570 55.849249 93.625968 192.873927 769.574879
2025-05-11 20.227309 26.754391 36.851921 55.497823 95.480607 207.590928 1025.412717
2025-05-18 19.446126 25.873329 35.928631 54.814472 96.511990 220.669861 1378.771012
2025-05-25 18.651427 24.928952 34.835751 53.691131 96.299150 229.605608 1807.243308
2025-06-01 18.004083 24.182568 34.025717 53.035124 97.119717 243.173107 2653.794309
2025-06-08 17.182721 23.125458 32.629498 51.093875 94.376975 241.311197 3108.094047
2025-06-15 17.063897 23.176470 33.126614 53.002238 102.032332 289.946750 13894.261320
2025-06-22 16.587190 22.628616 32.547778 52.634363 103.477718 311.455242 100058.813125
2025-06-29 16.079002 22.008385 31.807023 51.857506 103.631155 326.803426 NaN
2025-07-06 15.433064 21.140898 30.587970 49.967178 100.247808 319.790844 NaN
2025-07-13 15.351785 21.193297 31.010080 51.653223 107.881697 389.479683 NaN
2025-07-20 15.216481 21.148757 31.252034 52.971558 114.830321 470.372532 NaN